Matt Makens

Well, the headline applies to Denver and Colorado Spring but not necessarily the
high country or near Fort Collins where they've had heavier precipitation with
the last few systems. However, we do see higher chances for some moisture Friday
than we've seen for awhile.

It's not the epic snow some of us would like to see, heck it isn't even all that
great a setup for rain or a rain/snow mix. Considering the fire dangers and
recent record heat, I'll take a bit of moisture even if it's only a few spits.

Here's the overall picture of the middle atmosphere showing our current ridge,
moving east and breaking down (red colors) allowing a trough to the west (blue
colors) to move into our region. However, the animation shows the strength of
the trough does weaken as it's on top of us, then regains a bit of strength as
it moves east of us this weekend.

For an epic storm we'd need that thing hundreds of miles south and that's not a
shift we are likely to see. Let's bring that view down to the surface and watch
as rain and snow move through in this radar forecast.

You'll note a relatively weak lee-side low (multiple actually) develop from
Thursday through Saturday but all lack a concerted effort to deepen much, thus
limiting the focus for heavy precipitation for us.

A look at probabilities does show a reasonable confidence in some precipitation,
both rain and snow for the Denver area, as well as Colorado Springs.

For Denver, here's our GFS ensemble product which shows all ensemble members
bring precipitation this Friday. That's all the green and blue ticks in that
column for the Friday into Saturday.

Notice next week does show some precip chances, but a far lower confidence in
the GENS than the system for later this week.

Let's take our other product, and look at daily precipitation chances for
Colorado Springs. Kind of the same idea here in that Friday to Saturday offer
the highest chances that we'll have for awhile.

For Denver, we had roughly a tenth of an inch early this month, but that's it.
So let's see how this system compares.

Using the Euro Ensembles we have the following projections for both total
precipitation and snowfall.

That's at least a quarter-inch of water for the metro areas and some of us pick
up a couple to a few inches of snow, also.

In past blogs about similar storms I've often poo-pood them. This one has time
to tank and we get nothing, but I don't feel that's as likely this time. This
time, unlike many in the past, has had analog support. Analogs have shown a
probability for wetter than normal conditions centered on April 15th for quite
some time. I saved this analysis from several days ago showing just what I
mentioned.

And, we've had some pretty decent consistency from the Euro on run to run total
precipitation forecasts. That's also nice not to be dealing with the herkie
jerky it did for the past two or three systems. 

Considering this incredible ridge over us now, though. That may be a factor in
ultimately seeing a change in this system before it gets here. Why? We've
quickly gone from seeing an abnormally strong ridge, to one reinforced by not
only recent dryness but long-term drought from the Plains. 

> Today's record highs that will be set/threatened are shown here. This heat is
adding to the drought from Nebraska southward, and to the rapid snowmelt and
flooding in the Northern Plains and Midwest.#heatwave
[https://twitter.com/hashtag/heatwave?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw] #agtwitter
[https://twitter.com/hashtag/agtwitter?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw] #beef
[https://twitter.com/hashtag/beef?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw] @Beef
[https://twitter.com/Beef?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw] @cattlefax
[https://twitter.com/cattlefax?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw] pic.twitter.com/YnTWFxvIq0
[https://t.co/YnTWFxvIq0]

— Matt Makens (@MattMakens) April 12, 2023
[https://twitter.com/MattMakens/status/1646182058098823174?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]
The strength of this ridge is more than what analogs would have suggested and
that may impact the incoming trough by weakening it more rapidly than current
model forecasts, which will result in weaker lee-side surface low development
and weaker lift period. 

With that, I remain curious to see how models may shift after today. I do think
we have a good shot at moisture in the form of rain and snow for Friday. Even a
weaker setup could still bring us more moisture than we've had thus far in
April. So far, March and April for us in Denver have been quite lame. In any
case, it won't be the snowfall some of us snow lovers remain waiting for.

Late week system offers best chance of moisture so far this month